Optimal Loss of Load Expectation for Generation Expansion Planning Considering Fuel Unavailability

In generation expansion planning, reliability level is the key criterion to ensure enough above peak demand in case there are any outages. This must be appropriately optimized provide a reliable system with minimum cost. Currently, method determine an optimal mainly focused on reserve margin, accustomed used by several utilities. However, Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE) more suitable for high proportion renewable energy since it considers both probabilistic characteristics and entire load’s profile. Moreover, also correlated margin. Considering current fuel supply situation, model based Bayes’ Theorem proposed incorporate unavailability into criterion. paper proposes determining LOLE along that incorporates consideration. tested Thailand’s Power Development Plan 2018 revision 1 demonstrate numerical examples. It found test 0.7 day/year, or shifted 0.55 day/year considering unavailability.